Monday, February 05, 2007
A PLEA FOR REAL WORLD SCIENCE
According to leading UK and US aurthorities, we have 10 years to soak
up CO2 from the sky. Only soils can do it. The world can't wait for a
100% solution. We are looking for a 70% solution. We are anxious to
get started now because we have a market now. We've got supply and
we've got demand. Waiting for measurement and verification validation
will consume precious time. We want a real-world system of
measurement based on estimations and averaging. At one end of the
spectrum we have a simple everyday soil test which includes carbon
reading. $40. A bunch of core samples are combined for a single
score. Inaccurate? Who says? For what purpose? On the other hand we
have diffuse or upended spectroscopy with 100 samples from a single
field, each individually analysed, and the entire disaster costing
$40,000. No farmer is going to spend that. Accurate? Who says? For
what purpose? With the price of carbon swinging from US$4 to US$39and
back again. By the time someone comes up with a system that satisfies
scientists, officials and governments, the horse will have bolted.
the market will be made and the makers dictating the terms. It is not
the expectations of scientists we want to meet, nor is it the
expectations of governments. Neither of these groups make markets. A
market is made when two people agree between them something is worth
a certain amount - ie. they make a trade. So it is the expectations
of the traders we must meet. They don't want to buy a bunch of
exactitudes. They want to know, that on balance of probabilities,
averaged out over thousands of units, that there is a tonne in that
soil that wasn't there before. Now someone is going to get their
first, and it won't be the ones the took the long way. It will be
those who took the reasonable short cut. "Better to arrive on time
with a 70% solution than turn up too late with 100% solution." The
people now entangling themselves in verification trials will never
reach the starting line. Soil C measurement is quicksand. SO we want
real world science.
HOW DO WE MEASURE SOIL CARBON FOR CREDITS?
We don't use complicated models that only an actuary could
understand. There is uncertainty in precisely how much carbon is
sequestered by every technique. All models are based on agreed
estimates and averages. Not ours.
The SOIL CARBON CREDIT is based on the following factors:
1. The history of soil management for the plot in question.
2. The history of soil management for the entire property.
3. The training record of the land manager.
4. The land management techniques used on the entire property.
5. The imputed increase in soil carbon in the plot in question over
the period since the change in land management.
up CO2 from the sky. Only soils can do it. The world can't wait for a
100% solution. We are looking for a 70% solution. We are anxious to
get started now because we have a market now. We've got supply and
we've got demand. Waiting for measurement and verification validation
will consume precious time. We want a real-world system of
measurement based on estimations and averaging. At one end of the
spectrum we have a simple everyday soil test which includes carbon
reading. $40. A bunch of core samples are combined for a single
score. Inaccurate? Who says? For what purpose? On the other hand we
have diffuse or upended spectroscopy with 100 samples from a single
field, each individually analysed, and the entire disaster costing
$40,000. No farmer is going to spend that. Accurate? Who says? For
what purpose? With the price of carbon swinging from US$4 to US$39and
back again. By the time someone comes up with a system that satisfies
scientists, officials and governments, the horse will have bolted.
the market will be made and the makers dictating the terms. It is not
the expectations of scientists we want to meet, nor is it the
expectations of governments. Neither of these groups make markets. A
market is made when two people agree between them something is worth
a certain amount - ie. they make a trade. So it is the expectations
of the traders we must meet. They don't want to buy a bunch of
exactitudes. They want to know, that on balance of probabilities,
averaged out over thousands of units, that there is a tonne in that
soil that wasn't there before. Now someone is going to get their
first, and it won't be the ones the took the long way. It will be
those who took the reasonable short cut. "Better to arrive on time
with a 70% solution than turn up too late with 100% solution." The
people now entangling themselves in verification trials will never
reach the starting line. Soil C measurement is quicksand. SO we want
real world science.
HOW DO WE MEASURE SOIL CARBON FOR CREDITS?
We don't use complicated models that only an actuary could
understand. There is uncertainty in precisely how much carbon is
sequestered by every technique. All models are based on agreed
estimates and averages. Not ours.
The SOIL CARBON CREDIT is based on the following factors:
1. The history of soil management for the plot in question.
2. The history of soil management for the entire property.
3. The training record of the land manager.
4. The land management techniques used on the entire property.
5. The imputed increase in soil carbon in the plot in question over
the period since the change in land management.
